The Simulator
Disclaimer: this interpretation of the simulator is not officially backed by Fifth Season AS. It is purely my view on things.
The simulator (from now on referred to as "Sim") is the single most important piece of the ML-puzzle. Mastering it, however,
is not entirely possible. But understanding certain aspects of how the Sim works might help you understand the good, bad and
downright ugly, match outcomes.
First, let's get into the right mindset. We are not playing soccer here - this is still a game of dice. And 1 match outcome is
decided by ~440 numbers, and 42. Also keep in mind that for every league round, the Sim needs to calculate thousands of matches.
This will result in the odd, ugly result - just like you will get a 6 by throwing a die enough times. It also means the Sim needs to
cut some corners to make this all happen within reasonable time.
{Pre-Game}
The Sim divides your team into 3 sections. Defense, Midfield and Offense.
Before the game is even played, the Sim makes some pre-game calculations for each of your sections based on several values:
- avg Q in each section (or a base figure for the combined attributes, if you will)
- teamstats Defense, Teamplay, Understanding for Defense-section
- teamstats Defense, Attacking, Teamplay, Understanding for Midfield-section
- teamstats Attacking, Teamplay, Understanding for Offense-section
- Your tactics
- Morale
- choice of captain
- stadium upgrades
- the Mojo-factor
- the number 42
- the coin toss
The Mojo-factor is a variable based on your teams current flow or performance-Rating. Basically the Sim will look at
the Team Rating in your last game, and adjust your Mojo accordingly. A good Rating in your previous game could
give you a Mojo-boost and the Sim will give you the "ball" more. However, if your last game ended in a draw with
mediocre Rating the sim will distribute the chances more evenly, and you are in for a close game.
{Let the game begin}
The coin toss is not visible, but decides who kicks off the game. This is the first play of the game, and is numbered by 1 in the match-report.
You are supposed to read it as "minute 1", but the Sim knows nothing about time so it is more accurate to think of it as a play
- like in American football. The difference being that in American football, the play stops when the offensive team lose possession of the ball,
whereas in ML the play continues with the other team on the offense.
I'm telling you this because it is important to understand. If you have an underdog-team, you will start fewer plays, BUT with the right tactics,
team- and player-abilities you can hijack the play and counter-attack.
The sim will loop through the numbers 1 to 90, each number representing a chance for a Play. Based on the pre-game calculations the sim
picks a random number (n) between 1-100.
1<n<X = play goes to the Home-team.
Y<n<100 = play goes to the Away-team
X<n<Y = skip (no play)
Example, a weak Home-team vs a strong Away-team - both teams picking a neutral tactic: 20<n<55
If the sim draws a number 21-54, this play is skipped (no line in the match-report)
And basically it's a 45% chance the Away-team will start something.
But the "underdog" Home-team could have very perceptive players and be stronger in freekicks and throw-ins. Thus, even if the Away-team
gets 45% of the plays, 10% of these plays might be freekicks and throw-ins that the Home-team can intercept and turn around (counter-attack).
What was a 20% vs 45% play/attack ratio could effectively be turned into roughly 25% vs 40%
Get the drift?
What we have..
a) pre-game calculations giving each team X,Y sides on a 100-sided die
b) the coin toss, deciding who kicks off
1) kick-off Play
2) Play 2, if any
3) Play 3, if any
...
89) Play 89, if any
90) End (no Play)
{The Plays}
Each play is an independent, random pick from an array of Plays. This could be: a freekick, a goalkick, a wing-raid, a defensive pass,
a longpass, a dribble.. The Play knows nothing about the previous play, time, velocity of a football or the weather. A tackled attacker
could be followed by a goalkick at the other end of the field. If you are lucky you draw lots of corner-plays, attacking-freekicks or
side-cross/corner-flag plays that directly (few steps) lead to a scoring opportunity.
A play is guided by a set of attributes - team-attributes and player-attributes - and is challenged by a random pick in the defending teams lineup.
The random pick is however not totally random - it is weighted giving more likely hood to draw players in this or that position.
Example: A left-wing is most likely challenged by the defending teams right midfield/defense.
This is important to know when you are up against imbalanced teams: If a team playing 4-4-2 has 1 superstar attacker and 1 good attacker,
you should consider who to throw at the superstar. If you think you have defenders capable of taking the superstar out of the game then position
them accordingly. If not, then perhaps you should rather focus on taking out the good attacker - and pray the superstar gets few chances ;)
{Set Pieces Play}
These plays often lead to good scoring chances and you would be wise to practice their team-attributes.
A Set-Pieces Play will consider your Throw-in/Freekick/Corner attribute vs that of your opponents. It will consider the maturity (Age) of your
executing player, his perception and passing skills. Lastly it will take into account the players hidden abilities - Set-Pieces and flair. Flair is perhaps
the least exciting, but will give you more direct shots from freekicks.
The hidden Set-Pieces attribute on the other hand, is magical. It does not behave like the regular, visible player-attributes - a higher value isn't
always better. The "fact" is a value between 80-90 makes your player a capable freekicker, and a value between 70-81 makes him fair at corner-kicks.
Hidden attributes also increase/decrease during a players career and is why a good freekicker could become a bad freekicker between seasons.
If so happens, try moving him to corner-kicks.
Now, the play:
A pass will pick a random challenge from a weighted array:
<10 Fumble
<30 fair pass, likely to be intercepted
<50 good pass, but challenged
<70 unchallenged
<90 magnificent pass
..
If the player making the pass isn't particularly good at it, you will see events in the lower end of the scale.
If the pass-reception is challenged, attributes of the receiver and challenger are compared - most notably speed and tackling. Also team-attributes
like Understanding and Teamplay is important here. When it comes to Set-Pieces situations, as of season 82 the team-attributes freekick, corner
and throw-in are compared through the whole Play!
So if your freekick attribute sucks, expect alot of your freekicks being intercepted.
As you can see there are alot of checkpoints your Play needs to pass to finally result in a scoring opportunity.
An example showing Play-distribution:
1 (Play 1) Eastern Nordby is lined up for the kick-off.
1 Tidal Dominated Delta takes the kick-off, and Rafa receives the ball.
1 The ball is sent backwards to the defense.
1 Nigel Brook kicks it out long, hoping to start something.
1 Oh dear! That's over the sideline.
1 Nice throw by Luthor, towards Seline.
1 Seline with the ball now, on the left side. Can he cross it?
1 Nice cross by Seline to Stavia!
1 Eirik Kittilsen aims for the skies in an attempt to get the ball first!
1 Eirik Kittilsen timed his jump superbly, and heads the ball out of harm's way.
2 (Play 2) Majidi R.W. with the ball now, on the right side. Can he cross it?
2 Benito Ramirez comes running, eager to block the cross.
2 But he started his defensive run a little too late.
2 A nice cross from Majidi R.W. but Lima is stopped by Alexander X.
4 (Play 3) Formann Mao with the ball now, looking for alternatives.
4 Excellent pass by Formann Mao to Geir Meisingset!
4 Ivo Matias tries to stop him.
4 Geir Meisingset must have seen him coming, and reacted in time to avoid the tackle.
4 Great shot by Geir Meisingset!
4 What a save!
4 Jericho throws the ball towards Garrik.
4 Garrik with the ball now.
4 Garrik passes the ball towards Luthor.
4 A futile pass by Luthor.
4 And now there might be consequences, as Formann Mao intercepts the ball!
4 Formann Mao seems eager to start a counter-attack!
4 Formann Mao sends the ball towards Jaime Espinosa.
4 Jaime Espinosa with the ball now, trying to get around Majidi R.W..
4 The plan was good, but the execution was not. Easy pickings for Majidi R.W..
5 (Play 4) Nice throw by Amblaoibh Garvey, towards Quaid.
5 But Nigel Brook shows great understanding and he clears the ball off to safety.
6 (Play 5) Felipe Ruiz plays it safe, kicks it out towards the midfield.
6 Majidi R.W. has managed to position himself in front of Benito Ramirez and jumps up to win the ball.
7 (Play 6) Felipe Ruiz kicks it out, obviously aiming for the midfield.
7 Stavia used his speed and perception to position himself in the right spot, and Eirik Kittilsen doesn't look too happy.
8 (Play 7) Benito Ramirez steps up to the corner flag...
8 Nice corner! The ball seems to be headed straight for George Mottram!
8 It seems he timed his run badly there, missing the ball completely.
9 (Play 8) Alexander X kicks it out, long and hard.
9 Tidal Dominated Delta has managed to position himself in front of Stavia and jumps up to win the ball.
9 A nice pass from Tidal Dominated Delta to Rafa.
9 But he never manages to get the ball under control! Not his greatest moment.
10 (Play 9) Felipe Ruiz kicks it out towards the midfield.
10 Geir Meisingset got in front of Ivo Matias.
10 Geir Meisingset is in a good position to cross it now.
10 A nice cross from Geir Meisingset but Rafa is stopped by Majidi R.W..
11 (Play 10) Seline with the ball now, looking for alternatives.
11 Excellent pass by Seline to Caza!
11 Formann Mao is in with a tackle.
11 But all he seems to tackle is grass and dirt.
11 They tried to set him offside and failed miserably!
11 Caza shoots! Felipe Ruiz manages to get a hand on the ball and pushes the ball just to the side of the post.
11 Jericho is waiting to take the corner...
11 Nice corner! The ball seems to be headed straight for Lima!
11 But Formann Mao intercepts the ball and it is cleared high upfield.
19 (Play 11) Majidi R.W. is in a good position to cross it now.
Here, during the first 15 minutes there are 10 plays that actually play out. Only 3 of these are given to my team, where the other 7 goes to
Eastern Nordby (the first is free as it is the kickoff). But due to how the Plays play out I get the "ball" more than 3 times.
Can we use this in tactics? Oh yes..
You can turn the Play around if you can manage to intercept the ball, or make the other team fail.
The simplest example I can think of is the offside trap. If you catch the opposition in your offside trap, you take over the Play AND get
a freekick. So by being good at both offsides and freekicks you can create chances that your overall, underdog-Q was refused.
Or, with a good Throw-in attribute you will start a good play whenever the other team lose the ball out over the sideline. I would even say
that Throw-In is specially nice against teams playing longball.
(See how I stole the very first play in this match, when Eastern's Nigel Brook fumbled the longpass!)
And good Counter-Attack attribute helps you to turn around Plays where the opposition makes a bad pass!
{Strategy}
So how do we use this knowledge to pick a strategy?
- Evaluate who's the stronger side. If you are stronger you would want to get as high a Play-number (remember the X and Y?) as possible.
You do this with High Pressure (Attacking). If the oppositions Defending skill is higher than your Attacking, then consider Normal.
The rumor saying Attack beats Normal, Normal beats Defense, Defense beats Attack/Counter-Attack and Counter-Attack beats Attack is wrong.
It's simple: The stronger team should Attack, the weaker team should Defend.
A generic average-Q comparison is often enough, but if there is noticeable difference in the 4 main Team-attributes then consider this too.
- Choose Mixed, Continental or Longball.
The old Mixed > Longball > Continental > Mixed equation doesn't hold water anymore.
You need to consider how well your players fit the style, and the tactics of your opponent.
How are your teamplay and passing skills?
How does your speed compare to the opposition speed?
How perceptive are your attackers vs opposition defenders?
What pressure do you expect your opponent to use?
If the opposition outperforms you on perception, you do not want to longball into their half.
If you are confident in your passing skills, you might want to choose continental style.
If you expect the opponent to play defensively, you should use more direct-attacks rather than passing the ball back and forth.
If you don't find any strengths or weaknesses, choose Mixed.
- Formation
This is simple. Pick a formation that fits your best players. Secondary look at pressure+style.
- When to shoot? Simplified:
If you think your attackers will outrun the opposition defenders, choose only-when-safe.
If the opposition has a brick-wall defense, but you are overall stronger - choose near goal.
If hell needs to freeze over for you to even make it passed the center line, choose anytime.
But again, you should consider what pressure you expect the opposition to use, how many defenders etc. 3 speedy defenders might be
no match for 3 attackers playing continental.
Do you expect to get alot of chances? If not, shoot from a longer distance to compensate. But only if your midfielders know how to shoot too.
Evaluate your opponents strengths and weaknesses. Some times you won't find anything in your favour - that's when you fall back and pray to get that lucky shot.
{Myths}
Mix old-players with young players to get better gains. It is true - raising the average age of the lineup helps the gains, but the old players do not
need X number of official games in their career, high Q or whatnot. The Age is enough. The main advantage from this "tactic" however is the fact
that old players are poor gainers. So most of the gains in a game will be distributed to your younger players.
So mathematically if you want to monster-gain a few young players, you would put them in a lineup with a set of high-Q, half-star oldies.
The high-Q in itself does not help getting gain-points, but it makes that oldie less likely to gain more.
The more you play a formation/tactic the better you become at it.
This is totally bogus. There is no such team-counter. If there was, Spinner would have implemented an indicator for it already + it has no relevance.
How well a formation works in any one game depends on all the other settings, players in the lineup and the oppositions tactics and players.
It is too complicated.
Players are better in right- or left-side. It might look that way, and there's even a hidden attribute to support this, but it is not implemented. How well
they play in a position depends alot on the players they play with :and: the players they are pitched up against. So even though they are not predisposed
to play better in a specific position, you would do right to take a closer look at underperforming players to see why/what they fail.
{Tips}
At the start of the season check your avg Q rank within your department. If you have one of the lowest Q teams, then see how you're doing in team-attributes.
With the first camp and first few training sessions, focus on something that could give you a general advantage or leverage in the department.
Examples:
* you will likely need to defend alot, so train Defense as high as you can.
* make shoot-at-will your strategy and practice those corner-kicks! A long-shot could be deflected to a corner, and the corner team-attribute will boost your finishing.
{Events}
You can not always see what players will have a great day or not. At times you fail to produce chances cause most Plays are generated in one side of the pitch, and the opposing midfielder/defender is having a great day. Unfortunately there is no Event that says "If @60minutes PlayerXperformance<60 AND MyTeamShotsProduced<2 ReplacePlayerX.....
But we can always gamble:
Add an event that says:
@60 minutes : if down by 1+ : Swap players around, or replace worst performing midfielder/attacker.
The coin toss is unfortunately random, but basically gives you a free Play in 50% of the games. If you start your games with a defensive pressure, then you are more likely to get nothing out of this first Play (if you win the coin-toss). That's why you should ALWAYS start with Attacking pressure! Then just add an event that says:
@Anytime : regardless of result : Set-your-real-pressure-here
This way you atleast :try: to do something with the "ball" when you win the coin-toss. Ofcourse 50% of the time you will have to defend first, but the best defence is a good offense - you can't win the game if you don't try to score. And this is why you should also consider to start your games with Hard-Tackling.
Any event will only fire once, after the kickoff Play. The "@Anytime:regardless" is a nice way to mask your playing style too, if you wish. It is also a great way to make sure you play with Soft-Tackles in friendlies, if you so wish.
Do you have attackers with high heading and shooting skills, but they miss the target alot? They are fast and got good perception too? Check what kind of passes they are getting. Could you do anything to improve the passes? Improve Teamplay, freekicks.. or the skills in your midfield?
Does your opponent get alot of redcards? Unfortunately there is no event to pick up on this, but you could gamble again and set an event to up your pressure after 60-75 minutes, hoping he is a man short on the field.
If you base your tactics around Corner-kicks, then you should shoot-at-will and tackle softer than your opponent. With softer tackling you are less likely to get a freekick called against your Corner-Play, and you are more likely to get penalties in your favour.
Most teams put their fastest midfielders and defenders on the sides, so what would happen if you put your fastest midfielder dead-center in a 3-5-2 Attacking? If he also has good Flair he will be more helpfull in defending and attacking, based on your pressure-choice.
No attribute is considered good if it is below 91.
THE most used attributes during a game is: passing, speed, tackling and perception!
Heading is used more than shooting.
Unfortunately, if you don't score you only get max 1 point.
If you are about to win big, consider swapping in a few low-Q players at 75 "minutes". This will lower your avg Q and give you better morale-gains!
I probably should've told you this last tip first: If you are a new manager, take a look at what division and department you are in. If you are in a competitive league, like the Norwegian, delete your team and start over if you are in:
Division 5, Departments 1-64
Division 4, Departments 1-16
These Departments are destined to move up the tree that ends in Division 2, Department 1. Due to how relegation works in ML the best of the directly-relegating 1st division teams end up in 2/1! You are likely to experience smoother sailings starting in a higher-numbered department.
{A note on Fitness}
Highly important. Even a couple points below max (100) can lose you the game. If you think of it like this: Skill-(100-fitness)=CurrentSkill.
So an attacker with 98 shooting skill suddenly has an effective skill of 96. But to hit the target you also need to add speed and perception into the equation,
both of which would have lost points too!
This also makes it a valid tactic to replace tired players towards the end-game. For each quarter of game-play a fitness point is randomly popped from
a few players. If unlucky, or a player has been involved in a bad tackle, a player could have dropped more than 5 points during the game. This would
affect his performance!
And here's a little secret - the hidden player attributes:
There are 6 hidden attributes in use + 2 that are not. And they are:
1: Flair / Technique
2: Potential
3: Temper
4: Set-Pieces
5: Confidence
6: injury proneness
-- not in use --
7: originally Left/Right foot
8: unused: seasonal modifier
I hope this post can inspire some discussions regarding ML tactics. Feel free to flame me ;)
