This will be a very short post on the random-factor in ML. I like to think of it as 42.
In every simulated match situation there is a chance Joe-Superstar will lose out to Jim-Oneleg - just to add some fun, excitement
and bloody, frustrating aggravation. Now in most situations, like mano-a-mano speed-duels, jump-offs and tackles it is hard to
pinpoint the randomness of it all. There are many variables involved; some hidden and some guessed; and as of last season you
also need to consider if the play derived from a set-pieces situation. Personally I find the last part a nice improvement, as it is a
known factor.
But the point of this post was to highlight the randomness, the chance, odds and unevens.. limiting the number of factors involved
I came up with Penalties.
{Penalty}
In a previous post I told you that the factors involved in a penalty shootout is Age, Flair and Shooting. And the Penalty team-attribute
- supposedly more important as of season 83. I also said that my 33 year old 90-fitness goalie with 57 shooting scored easily in a
game against a relatively-fit Keeping=94 goalie, team had 4 stars on penalty. Age was supposedly the dominating factor pre
season 83. With the new changes I was sure that the team-attribute would be more important, and it probably is,
but again: never underestimate the 42 chances of randomness that will shatter your tactics.
So I was up against this team.. utterly amazing team-attributes except throw-in 61-65 and PENALTY 1-55 (half a star)!!
In the 78th minute I get a penalty - and I can't believe my luck! What leprechaun flipped a coin into my wishing well to reward me a
penalty against the worst penalty-trained team in my department!? But it wasn't luck - it was evil:
There you have it. My 31 year old, 98-shooting attacker backed by a penalty-team-attribute of 84 failed to score
on the team with <55 penalty-team-attribute, on a 22 year old goalie with 89 keeping skills.
What are the odds...
Follow up - Feb 8th 2012:
And so it happens again. A penalty that potentially could decide my relegation.
I will admit my team is no penalty-specialist, but the numbers are still in my favour here:
83 Penalty-attribute Team - that is 3.5 stars;
31 year old, Q91 Attacker, 98 shooting, 85 perception;
vs.
Team with 2 stars Penalty-attribute - 66-70 points;
28 year old Q83, 87 Keeping, 85 perception Goalie;
The difference is at the least 13 team-points, 3 years and 11 points in visible skill.
Considering a continuation of this to sum up all my penalties, for and against, this season. Intuition tells me I missed against the worst Penalty-trained teams.
I do realize that Kuzmanov might not be the best choice in these situations, regardless of his 98 shooting.
-------
New Season follow-up
I just had an interresting game. It was directly after a League Cup game so both teams had some fitness loss. For the record, I swapped in a 100% fit goalie for the game.
This game resulted in 4 penalties - 3 for my team, 1 for Lucifer (home team). Kuzmanov shot all 3 for me and scored on all 3. Lucifers penalty was taken by a Q93, 34 yo, shooting 96 attacker. My goalie saved (Q91, 28 yo, 94 keeping). Kuzmanov at this time: Q92, 33 yo, 96 shot. Lucifers goalie: Q94, 30 yo, 97 keeping.
And, the team attributes: I had 83 penalty attribute, and Lucifer was somewhere between 91-95 (wut)
Looking at this game only, the chance of my team scoring a penalty should be far less than Lucifers chance - still I scored 3 for 3 and saved his 1.
Age used to be the dominating factor on penalties, but after the change that made team attributes (supposedly) more important I can't help but feel that "luck" is dominating penalties.
